:Product: 0727RSGA.txt :Issued: 2013 Jul 27 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 208 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jul 2013 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 26/2149Z from Region 1800 (S08W60). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (28 Jul, 29 Jul, 30 Jul). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 553 km/s at 26/2141Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 27/1628Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 27/1606Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1430 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (28 Jul) and quiet levels on days two and three (29 Jul, 30 Jul). III. Event probabilities 28 Jul-30 Jul Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 27 Jul 108 Predicted 28 Jul-30 Jul 105/110/115 90 Day Mean 27 Jul 120 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jul 023/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jul 010/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jul-30 Jul 008/008-005/005-004/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jul-30 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/10/10 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/20/20 Major-severe storm 20/10/10