:Product: 0729RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Jul 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 210 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jul 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
29/1651Z from Region 1800 (S08W84). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Jul,
31 Jul, 01 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
468 km/s at 28/2240Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 29/1301Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 29/0126Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1035 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (30 Jul, 31 Jul, 01
Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Jul-01 Aug
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Jul 112
Predicted   30 Jul-01 Aug 115/120/125
90 Day Mean        29 Jul 119

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jul  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jul  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jul-01 Aug  004/005-004/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jul-01 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10