:Product: 0806RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Aug 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Aug,
08 Aug, 09 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
567 km/s at 05/2249Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 05/2110Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 05/2249Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5207 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (07 Aug,
08 Aug, 09 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Aug 104
Predicted   07 Aug-09 Aug 105/105/105
90 Day Mean        06 Aug 117

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug  011/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Aug  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug  007/010-008/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor Storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/20
Major-severe storm    35/40/25