:Product: 0817RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Aug 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 229 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Aug 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
17/1824Z from Region 1818 (S07W33). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Aug, 19 Aug,
20 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
812 km/s at 17/0521Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 4301 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (18 Aug), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (19 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day three (20 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     25/25/25
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Aug 125
Predicted   18 Aug-20 Aug 130/130/120
90 Day Mean        17 Aug 113

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Aug  027/028
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Aug  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug  007/008-008/008-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/25
Minor Storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           35/35/35
Major-severe storm    25/25/35