:Product: 0818RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Aug 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Aug 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
18/1131Z. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Aug, 20 Aug,
21 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 650 km/s at
17/2126Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4650 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (19 Aug), quiet to active levels on day
two (20 Aug) and unsettled to active levels on day three (21 Aug).
Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three
(19 Aug, 20 Aug, 21 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Aug-21 Aug
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     25/25/25
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Aug 126
Predicted   19 Aug-21 Aug 130/125/120
90 Day Mean        18 Aug 113

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Aug  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Aug  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Aug-21 Aug  006/005-010/018-018/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Aug-21 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/25/45
Minor Storm           01/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/10
Minor Storm           35/35/35
Major-severe storm    25/30/55