:Product: 0820RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Aug 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 232 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Aug 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
20/0129Z from Region 1818 (S05W76). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (21
Aug, 22 Aug, 23 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 472 km/s at
19/2209Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 5339 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (21 Aug, 22
Aug, 23 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Aug-23 Aug
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Aug 132
Predicted   21 Aug-23 Aug 130/125/125
90 Day Mean        20 Aug 113

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Aug  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Aug  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Aug-23 Aug  015/018-014/015-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Aug-23 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    45/35/35