:Product: 0824RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Aug 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 236 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Aug 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one and two (25 Aug, 26 Aug) and expected to be very low with a chance
for a C-class flares on day three (27 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 532 km/s at
24/0729Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 24/0116Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 24/1225Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3575 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (25 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (26 Aug, 27 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug
Class M    05/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Aug 117
Predicted   25 Aug-27 Aug 115/110/105
90 Day Mean        24 Aug 113

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Aug  014/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Aug  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Aug-27 Aug  019/020-011/012-009/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/20/15
Minor Storm           30/05/01
Major-severe storm    10/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/25
Major-severe storm    75/30/20