:Product: 0825RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Aug 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 237 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Aug 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Aug,
27 Aug, 28 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
456 km/s at 25/0703Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 24/2118Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 25/1005Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1871 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (26 Aug, 27 Aug)
and quiet levels on day three (28 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Aug-28 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Aug 113
Predicted   26 Aug-28 Aug 110/105/100
90 Day Mean        25 Aug 113

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Aug  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Aug  009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Aug-28 Aug  011/012-009/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Aug-28 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/15
Major-severe storm    30/20/10