:Product: 0828RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Aug 27 2300 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 239 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Aug 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Aug,
29 Aug, 30 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 440 km/s at 27/2045Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 27/1744Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 27/1810Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1407
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (28 Aug,
29 Aug, 30 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Aug-30 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Aug 110
Predicted   28 Aug-30 Aug 105/100/100
90 Day Mean        27 Aug 114

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Aug  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Aug  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Aug-30 Aug  007/008-007/008-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Aug-30 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    20/20/30