:Product: 0830RSGA.txt :Issued: 2013 Aug 30 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Aug 2013 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 30/0246Z from Region 1836 (N11E30). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (31 Aug, 01 Sep, 02 Sep). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 439 km/s at 30/1532Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 30/1034Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 30/1011Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 165 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (31 Aug), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (01 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day three (02 Sep). III. Event probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Aug 108 Predicted 31 Aug-02 Sep 105/108/108 90 Day Mean 30 Aug 114 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Aug 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Aug 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep 016/020-018/025-013/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/45/35 Minor Storm 25/30/15 Major-severe storm 05/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/05/15 Minor Storm 25/20/30 Major-severe storm 60/70/45