:Product: 0831RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Aug 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 243 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Aug 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
31/1736Z from Region 1836 (N11E19). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Sep,
02 Sep, 03 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
496 km/s at 31/2050Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 30/2107Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 30/2122Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (01 Sep), quiet to
active levels on day two (02 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (03
Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Aug 108
Predicted   01 Sep-03 Sep 110/110/112
90 Day Mean        31 Aug 114

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Aug  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Aug  013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep  018/025-013/015-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/35/10
Minor Storm           30/15/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/15
Major-severe storm    70/45/10