:Product: 0904RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Sep 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Sep 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
04/0428Z from Region 1837 (S15W47). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one and two (05 Sep, 06 Sep) and expected to be very low with a chance
for a C-class flares on day three (07 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
507 km/s at 04/0850Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 03/2300Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 03/2142Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1230 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (05 Sep, 06 Sep)
and quiet levels on day three (07 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Sep 109
Predicted   05 Sep-07 Sep 110/105/105
90 Day Mean        04 Sep 114

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Sep  008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Sep  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep  009/008-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/15
Major-severe storm    25/25/10