:Product: 0912RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Sep 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 255 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Sep 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (13
Sep, 14 Sep, 15 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 452 km/s at
12/2055Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 12/1946Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 12/1905Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 229 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 Sep) with a slight chance
for minor storm levels, quiet to unsettled levels on day two (14 Sep)
and quiet levels on day three (15 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Sep 093
Predicted   13 Sep-15 Sep 095/100/100
90 Day Mean        12 Sep 113

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Sep  006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Sep  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Sep-15 Sep  013/015-008/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/10/05
Minor Storm           15/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/15
Major-severe storm    45/20/05