:Product: 0913RSGA.txt :Issued: 2013 Sep 13 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 256 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Sep 2013 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (14 Sep, 15 Sep, 16 Sep). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 603 km/s at 13/0108Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 13/1603Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 13/1525Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 178 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (14 Sep) with a chance for active conditions, mostly quiet levels on day two (15 Sep) and likely to be at active levels on day three (16 Sep) with a slight chance for minor storm conditions. III. Event probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 13 Sep 092 Predicted 14 Sep-16 Sep 100/100/100 90 Day Mean 13 Sep 113 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 12 Sep 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Sep 008/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Sep-16 Sep 008/010-005/005-013/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/05/50 Minor Storm 05/01/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/15/15 Minor Storm 35/15/35 Major-severe storm 25/05/45