:Product: 0915RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Sep 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (16
Sep, 17 Sep, 18 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 490 km/s at
14/2125Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 15/1834Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -2 nT at 15/2002Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled levels on day one (16 Sep) with active levels likely
and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (17 Sep, 18 Sep)
with a chance for active levels.

III.  Event probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Sep 093
Predicted   16 Sep-18 Sep 095/100/100
90 Day Mean        15 Sep 113

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Sep  002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep  013/015-008/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                50/30/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    04/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/25/15
Minor Storm           35/35/25
Major-severe storm    45/25/10