:Product: 0916RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Sep 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Sep 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (17
Sep, 18 Sep, 19 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 397 km/s at
16/0549Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 Sep) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (18 Sep, 19 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Sep 095
Predicted   17 Sep-19 Sep 095/095/095
90 Day Mean        16 Sep 112

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Sep  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Sep  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Sep-19 Sep  009/015-007/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/25/15
Minor Storm           35/35/25
Major-severe storm    45/25/10