:Product: 0918RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Sep 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 261 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Sep 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
18/0315Z from Region 1846 (S17E62). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Sep,
20 Sep, 21 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 570 km/s at
18/2019Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 18/1335Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 18/1531Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (19 Sep, 20 Sep)
and quiet levels on day three (21 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Sep-21 Sep
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Sep 104
Predicted   19 Sep-21 Sep 105/105/110
90 Day Mean        18 Sep 112

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Sep  008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Sep  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Sep-21 Sep  007/008-007/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Sep-21 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/05