:Product: 0923RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Sep 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 266 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Sep 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (24 Sep, 25 Sep, 26 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 425 km/s at
23/0304Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 23/0844Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 23/1643Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1893 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (24 Sep) and quiet levels
on days two and three (25 Sep, 26 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Sep-26 Sep
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Sep 108
Predicted   24 Sep-26 Sep 108/108/108
90 Day Mean        23 Sep 111

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Sep  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Sep  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Sep-26 Sep  008/008-004/005-004/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Sep-26 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/05/05