:Product: 0924RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Sep 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (25 Sep, 26 Sep, 27 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
455 km/s at 24/1954Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 24/1201Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 24/1108Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 838 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (25 Sep, 26 Sep, 27
Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Sep 110
Predicted   25 Sep-27 Sep 110/110/110
90 Day Mean        24 Sep 111

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Sep  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep  004/007-004/005-004/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05