:Product: 0930RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Sep 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
29/2339Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Oct,
02 Oct, 03 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 279 km/s at
30/0134Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 30/0514Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 30/0305Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 181 pfu at 30/2005Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 629 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Oct), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (02 Oct) and quiet to minor storm levels
on day three (03 Oct). Protons are expected to cross threshold on days
one, two, and three (01 Oct, 02 Oct, 03 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     99/99/90
PCAF       In Progress

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Sep 105
Predicted   01 Oct-03 Oct 100/100/100
90 Day Mean        30 Sep 111

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Sep  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct  007/010-017/025-014/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/35/35
Minor Storm           05/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/45/45