:Product: 1002RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Oct 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Oct,
04 Oct, 05 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 664 km/s at 02/0241Z. Total IMF reached 32 nT at 02/0424Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -29 nT at 02/0425Z. Protons
greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 85
pfu at 01/2205Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 362 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (03 Oct), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (04 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (05
Oct). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day one (03 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     20/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Oct 108
Predicted   03 Oct-05 Oct 110/110/110
90 Day Mean        02 Oct 111

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct  006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Oct  024/035
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct  016/020-008/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/10/05
Minor Storm           15/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/10
Major-severe storm    50/20/05