:Product: 1003RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Oct 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
03/2023Z from Region 1857 (S08E54). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Oct,
05 Oct, 06 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
609 km/s at 02/2141Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 03/0626Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 02/2256Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at
02/2255Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 781 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (04 Oct) and quiet levels
on days two and three (05 Oct, 06 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Oct 114
Predicted   04 Oct-06 Oct 110/110/105
90 Day Mean        03 Oct 110

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct  029/043
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct  008/008-005/005-004/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/10/15
Major-severe storm    20/05/10