:Product: 1010RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Oct 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
10/1101Z from Region 1861 (S10E22). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Oct, 12 Oct,
13 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
498 km/s at 09/2102Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 09/2158Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 10/0006Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 115 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (11 Oct, 12 Oct)
and quiet levels on day three (13 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Oct 121
Predicted   11 Oct-13 Oct 125/125/125
90 Day Mean        10 Oct 110

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct  021/026
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Oct  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct  008/010-007/010-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/05
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/10/10