:Product: 1013RSGA.txt :Issued: 2013 Oct 13 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2013 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 13/0043Z from Region 1865 (S22E06). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (14 Oct, 15 Oct, 16 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 423 km/s at 12/2116Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 12/2313Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 12/2308Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 407 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (14 Oct), quiet to active levels on day two (15 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (16 Oct). III. Event probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct Class M 40/40/40 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 13 Oct 129 Predicted 14 Oct-16 Oct 125/125/125 90 Day Mean 13 Oct 110 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct 005/005-010/012-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/20/20 Minor Storm 01/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/20/20 Major-severe storm 05/20/15