:Product: 1019RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Oct 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
19/0934Z from Region 1861 (S07W91). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (20
Oct, 21 Oct, 22 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 382 km/s at
19/0014Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3270 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (20 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (21 Oct, 22 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Oct 133
Predicted   20 Oct-22 Oct 125/120/115
90 Day Mean        19 Oct 111

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Oct  002/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct  006/005-009/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/25/15
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/20/20