:Product: 1101RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Nov 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Nov 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
01/1953Z from Region 1884 (S13W01). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Nov, 03 Nov,
04 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 427 km/s at
31/2142Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 31/2133Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6 nT at 31/2234Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (02 Nov, 03 Nov, 04
Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Nov 145
Predicted   02 Nov-04 Nov 145/145/145
90 Day Mean        01 Nov 117

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Oct  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Nov  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov  005/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10