:Product: 1102RSGA.txt :Issued: 2013 Nov 02 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 306 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Nov 2013 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 02/0446Z from Region 1885 (S19W16). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Nov, 04 Nov, 05 Nov). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 391 km/s at 02/2037Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 02/2039Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 02/1402Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3 pfu at 02/2000Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 163 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (03 Nov, 04 Nov, 05 Nov). III. Event probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov Class M 35/35/35 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 02 Nov 142 Predicted 03 Nov-05 Nov 140/140/135 90 Day Mean 02 Nov 118 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 01 Nov 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Nov 003/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov 006/005-006/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 10/10/10