:Product: 1104RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Nov 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 308 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Nov 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
04/0544Z from Region 1884 (S12W39). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (05 Nov, 06 Nov, 07 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 435 km/s at
04/1326Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 03/2101Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 04/1554Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 124 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (05 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (06 Nov, 07 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Nov 147
Predicted   05 Nov-07 Nov 145/140/135
90 Day Mean        04 Nov 119

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Nov  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Nov  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov  006/005-007/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/15/20