:Product: 1105RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Nov 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
05/0818Z from Region 1890 (S09E35). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (06 Nov, 07 Nov, 08 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 411 km/s at
04/2109Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 04/2324Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 04/2258Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 234 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (06 Nov, 07 Nov)
and quiet levels on day three (08 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (06 Nov, 07 Nov, 08 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Nov 149
Predicted   06 Nov-08 Nov 145/145/140
90 Day Mean        05 Nov 119

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov  007/008-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/20/10