:Product: 1106RSGA.txt :Issued: 2013 Nov 06 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2013 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X3 event observed at 05/2212Z from Region 1890 (S11E36). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Nov, 08 Nov, 09 Nov). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 378 km/s at 06/1649Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 06/1428Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 06/1805Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 571 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (07 Nov) and quiet levels on days two and three (08 Nov, 09 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (07 Nov, 08 Nov, 09 Nov). III. Event probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov Class M 45/45/45 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 06 Nov 154 Predicted 07 Nov-09 Nov 155/150/150 90 Day Mean 06 Nov 120 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Nov 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov 007/008-006/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/10/10 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 20/10/10