:Product: 1107RSGA.txt :Issued: 2013 Nov 07 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2013 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 07/1425Z from Region 1890 (S11E10). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Nov, 09 Nov, 10 Nov). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 401 km/s at 07/1616Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 07/1034Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 07/1002Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6 pfu at 07/0435Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Nov) and quiet levels on days two and three (09 Nov, 10 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (08 Nov, 09 Nov, 10 Nov). III. Event probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov Class M 60/60/60 Class X 20/20/20 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 07 Nov 148 Predicted 08 Nov-10 Nov 150/155/160 90 Day Mean 07 Nov 120 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov 011/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov 009/008-006/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/10/10 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/20/20 Major-severe storm 25/10/10