:Product: 1108RSGA.txt :Issued: 2013 Nov 08 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2013 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at 08/0426Z from Region 1890 (S11W02). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Nov, 10 Nov, 11 Nov). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 430 km/s at 08/2024Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 08/1918Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 07/2137Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (09 Nov, 10 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day three (11 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (09 Nov, 10 Nov) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (11 Nov). III. Event probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov Class M 60/60/60 Class X 30/30/30 Proton 20/20/30 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 08 Nov 146 Predicted 09 Nov-11 Nov 150/155/150 90 Day Mean 08 Nov 121 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov 011/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Nov 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov 006/005-006/005-009/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/25 Minor Storm 01/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/25 Major-severe storm 10/10/30