:Product: 1110RSGA.txt :Issued: 2013 Nov 10 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2013 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at 10/0514Z from Region 1890 (S12W28). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Nov, 12 Nov, 13 Nov). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 649 km/s at 09/2105Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 10/2019Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 10/2044Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 522 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Nov) and quiet levels on days two and three (12 Nov, 13 Nov). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (11 Nov, 12 Nov, 13 Nov). III. Event probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov Class M 60/60/60 Class X 30/30/30 Proton 30/30/30 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 10 Nov 154 Predicted 11 Nov-13 Nov 155/155/155 90 Day Mean 10 Nov 121 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov 014/022 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Nov 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov 010/010-004/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/10/10 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/20/20 Major-severe storm 25/10/10