:Product: 1112RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Nov 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
12/1942Z from Region 1897 (S20E51). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Nov, 14
Nov, 15 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 540 km/s at
11/2349Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 11/2124Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 12/0953Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 322 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (13 Nov, 14 Nov), with a
chance for unsettled periods, and quiet to unsettled levels on day three
(15 Nov). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two,
and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov, 15 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    30/30/30
Proton     30/30/30
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Nov 168
Predicted   13 Nov-15 Nov 170/170/165
90 Day Mean        12 Nov 122

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov  013/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov  003/005-006/005-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/20
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/30
Major-severe storm    25/10/25