:Product: 1113RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Nov 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
12/2308Z from Region 1897 (S20E51). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one and two (14 Nov, 15 Nov) and expected to be low with a chance
for M-class flares on day three (16 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 439 km/s at
12/2122Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 325 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (14 Nov, 15 Nov, 16
Nov). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on days one and two (14 Nov, 15 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    15/15/05
Proton     20/20/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Nov 171
Predicted   14 Nov-16 Nov 170/165/160
90 Day Mean        13 Nov 123

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10