:Product: 1119RSGA.txt :Issued: 2013 Nov 19 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2013 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at 19/1026Z from Region 1893 (S13W77). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (20 Nov) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (21 Nov, 22 Nov). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 432 km/s at 19/1729Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at 19/1825Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (20 Nov, 21 Nov, 22 Nov). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (20 Nov). III. Event probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov Class M 40/30/30 Class X 10/05/01 Proton 30/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 19 Nov 153 Predicted 20 Nov-22 Nov 150/140/140 90 Day Mean 19 Nov 126 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov 002/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov 006/005-006/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 10/10/10