:Product: 1120RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Nov 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
20/1722Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (21
Nov, 22 Nov, 23 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 423 km/s at
20/0630Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 20/0308Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 20/0039Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3 pfu at 19/2105Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (21 Nov, 22 Nov, 23
Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Nov 147
Predicted   21 Nov-23 Nov 140/135/130
90 Day Mean        20 Nov 126

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Nov  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10