:Product: 1121RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Nov 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z100 to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
21/1111Z from Region 1893 (S13, L=100). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (22
Nov, 23 Nov, 24 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 402 km/s at
20/2103Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (22 Nov, 23 Nov, 24
Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Nov 141
Predicted   22 Nov-24 Nov 135/135/135
90 Day Mean        21 Nov 126

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10