:Product: 1123RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Nov 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Nov 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
23/0232Z from Region 1904 (N12W67). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
chance for M-class flares on days one and two (24 Nov, 25 Nov) and
likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three
(26 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
393 km/s at 23/1403Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 23/1344Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 23/0723Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (24 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (25 Nov, 26 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov
Class M    25/25/10
Class X    05/05/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Nov 136
Predicted   24 Nov-26 Nov 140/135/130
90 Day Mean        23 Nov 127

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Nov  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Nov  009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov  006/005-007/008-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    10/20/25