:Product: 1128RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Nov 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 332 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Nov 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
28/0041Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Nov, 30 Nov,
01 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 339 km/s at
28/0541Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 28/1720Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 28/1808Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (29 Nov, 30 Nov, 01
Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Nov 133
Predicted   29 Nov-01 Dec 135/135/140
90 Day Mean        28 Nov 128

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Nov  002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Nov  002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05