:Product: 1202RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Dec 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Dec 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
02/1444Z from Region 1913 (S14W58). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec,
05 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 489 km/s at
02/0334Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 02/0438Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 02/0808Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec, 05
Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Dec 134
Predicted   03 Dec-05 Dec 135/135/140
90 Day Mean        02 Dec 129

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Dec  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Dec  002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05