:Product: 1204RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Dec 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
04/0056Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (05
Dec, 06 Dec, 07 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 430 km/s at
04/0539Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 04/0239Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6 nT at 04/0349Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (05 Dec), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (06 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (07 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Dec 138
Predicted   05 Dec-07 Dec 140/145/140
90 Day Mean        04 Dec 129

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Dec  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec  006/005-007/008-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/15/25
Minor Storm           01/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/20/25
Major-severe storm    05/20/35