:Product: 1206RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Dec 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
06/0648Z from Region 1909 (S17W50). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (07
Dec, 08 Dec, 09 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 358 km/s at
06/0014Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 158 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (07 Dec, 08 Dec) and
quiet levels on day three (09 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Dec 151
Predicted   07 Dec-09 Dec 155/150/150
90 Day Mean        06 Dec 130

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Dec  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec  011/012-011/012-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/05
Minor Storm           10/10/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/15
Major-severe storm    40/40/05