:Product: 1207RSGA.txt :Issued: 2013 Dec 07 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Dec 2013 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 07/0729Z from Region 1909 (S17W61). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Dec, 09 Dec, 10 Dec). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 426 km/s at 07/0755Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 07/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 07/2058Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 148 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Dec) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (09 Dec, 10 Dec). III. Event probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec Class M 25/25/25 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 07 Dec 157 Predicted 08 Dec-10 Dec 155/150/150 90 Day Mean 07 Dec 131 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 06 Dec 003/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Dec 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Dec-10 Dec 007/010-008/010-009/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/25/25 Minor Storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 35/35/35