:Product: 1209RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Dec 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
09/1130Z from Region 1917 (S16E43). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Dec, 11 Dec,
12 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 611 km/s at
08/2145Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 08/2109Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 09/1443Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 Dec), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (11 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (12 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Dec 168
Predicted   10 Dec-12 Dec 170/175/172
90 Day Mean        09 Dec 133

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec  014/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Dec  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec  009/010-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/05/05
Minor Storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/15
Major-severe storm    35/10/05