:Product: 1211RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Dec 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
11/2045Z from Region 1916 (S12W78). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Dec, 13 Dec,
14 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 388 km/s at
10/2327Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 126 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (12 Dec), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (13 Dec) and unsettled to active levels on day three (14
Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Dec 171
Predicted   12 Dec-14 Dec 168/165/160
90 Day Mean        11 Dec 135

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Dec  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec  005/005-011/012-017/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/45/45
Minor Storm           01/30/25
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/05/10
Minor Storm           15/20/25
Major-severe storm    05/70/65