:Product: 1214RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Dec 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
14/1124Z from Region 1917 (S15W24). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Dec, 16 Dec,
17 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
615 km/s at 14/2037Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 14/0547Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 14/0129Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 319 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Dec) and quiet levels on
days two and three (16 Dec, 17 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Dec 164
Predicted   15 Dec-17 Dec 160/160/165
90 Day Mean        14 Dec 137

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec  013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec  013/015-005/005-004/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/05/05
Minor Storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/15/15
Major-severe storm    40/05/05