:Product: 1216RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Dec 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
16/0330Z from Region 1917 (S15W50). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (17 Dec) and expected to
be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (18 Dec,
19 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
543 km/s at 16/0808Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 15/2109Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 16/0410Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (17 Dec, 18 Dec, 19
Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
Class M    20/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Dec 154
Predicted   17 Dec-19 Dec 155/160/155
90 Day Mean        16 Dec 138

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Dec  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec  005/007-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05