:Product: 1217RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Dec 18 0500 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Dec 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
16/1733Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Dec,
19 Dec, 20 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 448 km/s at
17/1502Z. Total IMF reached 4 nT at 17/1646Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 17/1647Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (18 Dec, 19 Dec, 20
Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Dec-20 Dec
Class M    25/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Dec 159
Predicted   18 Dec-20 Dec 160/155/160
90 Day Mean        17 Dec 139

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Dec  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Dec  003/001
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Dec-20 Dec  005/007-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Dec-20 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05