:Product: 1219RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Dec 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 353 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Dec 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
19/1535Z from Region 1928 (S16W19). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Dec, 21 Dec,
22 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 409 km/s at
19/1447Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 18/2225Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 19/0034Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (20 Dec, 21 Dec, 22
Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Dec 153
Predicted   20 Dec-22 Dec 155/150/145
90 Day Mean        19 Dec 140

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Dec  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Dec  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec  005/005-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05